Monetary Flows and Economic Policy

Monetary Flows
Large mergers and acquisitions can create an often temporary demand for a particular currency which can cause the currency to strengthen. The trade flow between countries illustrates the demand for goods and services, which in turn indicates demand for a country's currency to conduct trade. Surpluses and deficits in trade of goods and services reflect the competitiveness of a nation's economy. Large trade deficits (imports > exports) usually have a negative impact on a nation's currency.
Economic Policy
Fiscal policy which is essentially the way a government chooses to manage its revenues (tax) and expenses (spending on health, education and defense). The difference between the two is the government deficit/surplus. A country’s currency usually reacts negatively to widening government budget deficits, and positively to narrowing budget deficits.

Monetary policy which is the way in which a government's central bank influences the supply and "cost" of money. The cost of money is reflected on a currency’s interest rate while the money supply is managed with the buying or selling by the central banks of government bonds. High real interest rates (nominal interest rates less inflation) usually tend to attract capital causing a currency to strengthen. The level of interest rates also affects the domestic economy in that a high interest rate tends to slow economic growth and inflation, while in periods of low growth or deflation central banks use low interest rates to stimulate growth or bring inflation back to target. Adding money supply (buying government bonds back from the market-quantitative easing) is used to stimulate growth and inflation, whereas withdrawing money supply (selling government bonds) is slowing growth and inflation. Excess money supply tends to weaken a country’s currency while low money supply tends to strengthen a country’s currency.

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Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis involves examining the intrinsic value of a nation’s currency based on economic news releases that reflect the strength, or weakness, of a country’s economy. Fundamental traders follow these news announcements, known as “fundamental indicators,” because they paint a picture of a currency's strength in relation to other countries.

Fundamental indicators are reports that include statistical data on things such as employment, gross domestic product (GDP), international trade, retail sales, housing, manufacturing, and interest rates. The stability, growth, or decline in any of these sectors may have an effect – direct or indirect – on the value of a country’s currency.

Factors That Move The Forex Market
Central banks play a key role in the Forex market because they have the responsibility of changing the country’s “base” interest rate. A central bank has to find a fine balance when setting interest rates as it wants to maintain growth in the economy, but at the same time it has to be careful to curtail inflation. The bank’s decisions on whether to raise, cut, or hold the interest rate fuels speculation in the Forex market, where the value of a currency, or group of currencies, changes in real time.

In addition to information about a country’s economy, the value of a currency is connected to national and international political events, elections, and changes in government trade policies. The prices of sensitive commodities like oil and gasoline are an important fundamental indicator as high prices can hurt consumer spending and confidence, and curtail the activities of certain businesses and government services.

Natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and militarily actions in a sensitive region cause instability in the world and have a significant impact on the Forex market as they develop. These types of evens can be hard to predict in advance.

The ability to identify trends in macroeconomic indicators and reading central bank’s current and future actions is a valuable tool that comes from following financial news, watching the markets, and trading Forex.

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Profiting from short term investments

Profiting from short term investments is a question of how involved the investor wants to be in the decision making process.

There are a number of advantages to investing short term with the most important being that profits or losses can be observed almost immediately. Also short term investments don’t lock up your money for very long and if you see that an investment is not doing well you don’t need to wait too long before you can reinvest elsewhere.

Profiting from Short Term Investments:

Short-term investments typically are about investments with more prospects for big profits, but also potential for additional risk. The assets that can be invested in short term investments are options, forex, futures, commodities and stocks. Sometimes realized profits for these investments reach double digit proportions per day! Alas, if you are not careful losses can be that high also. However, there are ‘safe’ or less risky short term investments such as money market funds or treasury bonds which do not offer a big return and are for the conservative investor.

To profit from a short term investment you must decide which time frame you are comfortable with. For example investments in the currency markets might be for a length of several hours or even one day especially if you intend to day trade.

Other types of short term investments such as options, futures, or stocks may last a few days or a few weeks. Investments such as bonds or treasury notes may have a short term horizon of several months. In general the shorter the time period the more involved in the investment you need to be to profit more successfully from it.

You should decide the risk level you feel comfortable with before you decide to invest your money. If you are investing money that you can’t afford to lose don’t invest in the high risk investments such as currencies, stocks or commodities, options and futures. You might have a chance to make a killing but you are just as likely to make a big loss. You should be looking at investing in low risk assets such as CD’s, treasury notes and short term bonds.

If your investment money is spare cash and not earmarked for anything in the future then you are free to choose a higher risk investment and an asset class that can give you a higher return on your investment.

Short term investments require a lot of on-going decisions and also need more knowledge of markets as well as more than passing knowledge of fundamental and technical analysis, especially assets such as currencies, stocks and commodities. Either you learn and acquire the right knowledge or you get advice from a qualified investment advisor.

However, short term low risk investments such as money market instruments or bonds which are held until they mature don’t require a lot of study and skill as your profits can be estimated in advance and you can choose the return on investment you desire from the options you have.

To profit from short term investments you need to decide whether high risk, high return, short term investments suit you or whether you are more comfortable with short term low risk, low return safe investments.

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Forex and World Economic Crisis

World Economic Crisis is a burning issue not only for those dealing with finance but also for all social groups as everyone, one way or another, is influenced by economic cataclysms. Some are afraid of inflation rate and reduction of wages, the others are scared to lose their jobs.
So traders here are not the exception as their work is directly connected with finance and everything that is happening in the world of currency undoubtedly affects the exchange market. That is why, probably, at least once every trader wondered what would happen on Forex if another finance crisis takes place and how the members of the foreign exchange market should react to such major events.
Indeed, the World Economic Crisis leaves its mark on Forex with both positive and negative aftereffects.
Therefore it is very important for every trader to correctly react to financial cataclysms and try to elicit all the benefits out of such situation, still getting the profit.
First of all, there is no need to panic while monitoring a huge flow of world economic news. During the crisis period the amount of such news is getting much bigger than during peaceful periods. As soon as the financial situation loses stability, the currency rates undergo great changes: plummeting of exchange rates becomes a common thing for many national currencies which belong to the countries involved into crisis. While the newspapers headlines as well as on-line publications are full of information about the new world economic events, it becomes more complicated for a trader to deal with such a great amount of information, analyze the conditions in time as well as correctly predict the behavior of currency rates.
Nevertheless, together with the right approach and substitution of emotional breakouts for rational judgments it is possible to change things for the better. A trader can easily benefit from this event and multiply his/her capital while continue working confidently.
There is no need to be afraid of the raised market volatility - better to know how to get money out of it. As Forex trade is based first and foremost on buy and sell operations, the traders risk less to lose their job during the economic crisis.
The tools and methods that exist on the foreign exchange market will always allow to get the profit. If financial crisis involves some currency exchange rates falling, the quotes of other currencies raise automatically, which in case of competent analysis gives an opportunity for a trader to consummate a transaction with a benefit.
Undoubtedly the influence of World Economic Crisis on Forex is tangible. Yet, despite the traders’ disturbing expectations, financial turmoil cannot lead the exchange market to decay.

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Non-News Trading on Forex

Due to permanent improvement of the Internet and communication facilities for traders operating on Forex, the information becomes more accessible. That is why a lot of traders and investors consider that following the fresh news release, reading the analytical reviews and another similar information their chances of profit earning advance essentially. But it is not exactly so:
Staking on news may result in huge financial losses. Why does it happen? Without a detailed consideration of this issue the true cause of this will be hardly understandable. So let us make a close analysis:
Almost every beginning trader supposes that applying to news in trading will certainly turn out to be beneficial, but it is wrong.
The first thing said about news is that they reflect changes taking place in the market in full measure. But as a rule, such assertions are not approved and the currency`s reaction to them mostly differs from the expected one.
Certainly, the leading positions of supply and demand are not passed by in the market, at the same time there is no logics in their movements.
The main reason depreciating the news is the markets. That is why the news trading becomes almost unreal. Thus, knowing in advance when some news will be published and what influence it can put on the market the investors start acting. So when this news is given to public the market reaction can be hardly visible or there will be no any reaction at all, as everything is taken into account by the price. It is also worth paying attention to people`s character and the real picture showing the news "importance" will become clear.
One more reason impacting the trading during the news is human emotions violating a significant nuance in trading - discipline. Similarly, the analytics can be incorrect sometimes. In situations when an opened trade should better be closed the trader does not make it, as an active motion is predicted by analysts to start at that very moment.
At the same time, the news should not be ignored. It is widely known that the market peaks often emerge after the news with positive forecasts, and the lows to the contrary after unpromising news.
It can be concluded that for traders with big capital who operate with major pairs the right decision would be not to run a news trading and to apply to an order trading system instead. Because these news are already recorded by the system. They are also a part of technical analysis which is an irreplaceable component of any well-set trading system

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