Monetary Flows and Economic Policy

Monetary Flows
Large mergers and acquisitions can create an often temporary demand for a particular currency which can cause the currency to strengthen. The trade flow between countries illustrates the demand for goods and services, which in turn indicates demand for a country's currency to conduct trade. Surpluses and deficits in trade of goods and services reflect the competitiveness of a nation's economy. Large trade deficits (imports > exports) usually have a negative impact on a nation's currency.
Economic Policy
Fiscal policy which is essentially the way a government chooses to manage its revenues (tax) and expenses (spending on health, education and defense). The difference between the two is the government deficit/surplus. A country’s currency usually reacts negatively to widening government budget deficits, and positively to narrowing budget deficits.

Monetary policy which is the way in which a government's central bank influences the supply and "cost" of money. The cost of money is reflected on a currency’s interest rate while the money supply is managed with the buying or selling by the central banks of government bonds. High real interest rates (nominal interest rates less inflation) usually tend to attract capital causing a currency to strengthen. The level of interest rates also affects the domestic economy in that a high interest rate tends to slow economic growth and inflation, while in periods of low growth or deflation central banks use low interest rates to stimulate growth or bring inflation back to target. Adding money supply (buying government bonds back from the market-quantitative easing) is used to stimulate growth and inflation, whereas withdrawing money supply (selling government bonds) is slowing growth and inflation. Excess money supply tends to weaken a country’s currency while low money supply tends to strengthen a country’s currency.

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Fundamentals on Forex

There are many games to try your luck but definitely forex trading is not a game of chance. We therefore always advise our clients to at least gain a basic understanding of the Forex market and what influences the prices of different currency pairs before they start trading. In general, fluctuations in exchange rates are caused by Fundamental and/or Technical factors. In this article we outline the basic fundamental considerations.
Political conditions
Actual monetary flows (flows for imports, exports, mergers, acquisitions) and expectations of changes in monetary flows.
Major news which is released publicly, often on scheduled dates and times which include:
(a) Economic policy formulated by central banks,
(b) Economic conditions generally revealed through economic reports (GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, relative interest rates, budget and trade deficits or surpluses, consumer confidence etc).
§ Market Psychology

Political Conditions
Internal, regional, and international political conditions and events can have a profound effect on currency markets. All exchange rates are susceptible to political instability (ahead of elections for example) and anticipations about the new ruling party. Political upheaval and instability can have a negative impact on a nation's economy. Also, events in one country or a region may spur positive or negative interest in a neighboring country and, in the process, affect its currency.

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Top 10 Trading Tips for Beginner Traders.

1.Tread Softly into Unknown Territory!

Don’t make the mistake of most beginners. For example, they hear some rumors and invest all they have in the hopes of profiting quickly and effortlessly. As a beginning trader start small. Humbly learn all you can about a few instruments before you dive in.

2.Hold on to your Capital!

Quick profits are out there for the taking, but real success at trading comes with time and experience.  Remember: staying cool in this line of work is achieved by discipline and knowledge, by entering and exiting the market confidently.

3.Respect Your Stop Loss!

Do you know what the number one reason is that causes traders to quit trading? They incur heavy losses because they don’t incorporate Stop Loss into their strategies. It’s that simple. If you are not familiar with Stop Loss, make sure you understand it thoroughly before it’s too late.

4.Create a System of Trading

Just like each person has their own fingerprint, so each trader has their own style. You must nurture and develop your own style by reading widely and studying carefully. Study success and you may achieve it!

5.Watch your Profits Grow!

Among  the most important things to remember as a beginning trader is to not to close your winning trades too early.  Avoid making decisions based on fear and impatience.

6.Know when to Adjust!

When your trades prove profitable, watch them closely. If need be, more your stop loss forward to your entry point to guarantee profit. Then, watch the trend and adjust your stop loss. And most importantly, watch the trend to prevent your investment from slipping into a loss.


7.Plan Forward

Trading takes finesse and planning. If the price of a stock or currency suddenly rises or falls, don’t take that as an indication that it’s a good time to enter. Knowing your entry point well in advance takes study and planning.  You must know your Take Profit and Stop Loss rates before you trade, so then you only have to wait for the right opportunity to come up.

8.Trend Basics

One more thing that new traders should be aware about is that as a new trend starts to grow, it gains momentum. So, imagine that what you see as a great opportunity, so do thousands of others thereby strengthening the trend. This could push your trade into the right direction, increasing your profits sooner than you might forecast.

9.Taking a Loss? Get out!

Remember the old saying, “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”? So it goes with trading. If one of your trades is taking a loss, pull out! You can always reassess it from the sidelines.

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Sell Eur/Jpy

Sell Eur/Jpy @110.45
T.p 70 pips
S.l 70 Pips

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A Volatile Market: A Blessing or A Curse?

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Volatility is the main feature of the Forex market where trading takes place non- stop throughout the week except for the weekend. It is by far the biggest market on earth and is bigger than all the other markets combined. The daily turnover of the market stands at a figure exceeding four trillion dollars and this will give you an idea as to its trading volume.

This highly volatile market is the arena where millions of traders and investors risk their money in the hope of making a profit. If there was no volatility there would be no trading. In this sense it is truly a blessing that many traders capitalize on. Volatility is brought about by markets that trade erratically swinging between highs and lows. Where there is no market movement in currency prices you will see no volatility and thus no trading will take place in such an environment.

It is fact that the volatility in currency trading moves by pips and a closer look will tell you that this movement is indeed extremely small. This is why leverage is considered as necessary by currency traders, as well as signals. In a highly volatile market losses can be augmented by leverage and at times like this it is best to trade lesser amounts so that losses are also kept to a minimum.

Although a volatile market can be a blessing you should control your trading in such a market. This is easily by using tighter stops so that losses are cut off at the outset. The exact placing of the stop will depend upon the currency pair being traded. Volatile market conditions often tempt traders to invest more than normal in the hope of collecting profits. However, this can be dangerous as the risk faced in a volatile market is higher than at other times. A trader should stick to his planned trading at all times and during times of extreme volatility this is even more essential.

Keeping up with fundamental indicators and news in general will ensure that you know the cause for the high volatility in the Forex market. This knowledge will help you to make better trade decisions in the longer run as you face volatility in the market. When you trade carefully adjusting leverage so as to reduce any potential losses you can still win in a volatile market.

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Why It's Important to Accurately Time Your Trade

Timing is everything in forex. Time it right, you win. Get your timing wrong, your money goes up in smoke.

In a fast paced market with periods of intense volatility like the forex market, timing is essential. There is a saying that “the trend is your friend till it ends”. I will say that the “trend is your enemy if you get in too late”.

Traders are advised to “trade fundamentally, enter technically.” This implies that traders are expected to follow the direction of a high impact news item. But in doing so, traders must use their technical analysis to enter at the right time.

What happens if entries are not timed properly? These are the scenarios that could occur.

1)      Some high impact news hits the news wires and it favors a long trade. You go long, but you discover that the market has spiked by almost 80 pips about a second after news release. Your entry is still pending, waiting for the broker to fulfill it. Too late. Prices are too far gone and you are asked to “REQUOTE”. Not wanting to miss out, you re-enter the market not minding the prices, and your order is instantly fulfilled. Suddenly, the price starts to retrace wildly, and you are stopped out, just in time for the price to resume its move northwards. It’s almost like the market maker was watching you to do you in.



2)      The second scenario is a bit like the first, but instead of a requote, your order is filled at a price so far away from market price, it will take a miracle move in the trade direction to break even, let alone make a profit. Slippage sucks.

Let’s explain the two scenarios. In a high impact news trade, the news feeds are received by the institutional investors before anyone else via premium news services like Bloomberg and Reuters, who charge thousands of dollars a month for this. A team of veteran traders will be waiting to analyze the news and hit the trade buttons fast. The sheer volume of such trades sends the currency price candlesticks spiking. Sometimes the spikes happen even before the retail traders get the same news. As such, any trade entered by a retail trader at this point will most likely not be fulfilled; requotes follow. If a trader enters the trade at this time, he will meet the institutional guys offloading their positions to take profits, and he will get hit by the unavoidable retracement that follows.

The two scenarios are a case of wrong timing at work.

How Can You Accurately Time Your Trades to Avoid Losses?

For news trades, it is pretty obvious here that you should not try mixing it with the big dogs. You will get blown out by the two scenarios I painted again and again. Only enter news trades when the initial madness has died down. Soon, the market will respond in a slower and more purposeful direction to the news trade, as we see here from the Non-Farm Payroll report of June 3, 2011.

Secondly, use pivot points in addition to your other technical indicators to determine if you are still within touching distance of a profit. If a long trade is closer to a resistance than a support level, the chances of that trading making a profit is lower than if the entry was closer to the support level.

There are many tips, but hang on to these two for now.

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Six Tips for Long Term Investment

The long term investor needs to follow a strategy that is compatible with long term investment success.

A long term investor requires that the investment is safe, that his capital is secure and that there is a reasonable risk free return on the investment. Banks offer a reasonably risk free investment however the interest rate is very low. The Stock market has much higher returns but there is an aspect of risk which deters some investors. For all this the stock market can proffer the long term investor the opportunity to invest with manageable risk and a good return.

Six Tips for Long Term Investment:

A key long term strategy for a long term investor is to diversify their investments into various instruments such as stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. Most investment advisors recommend that not more than 10% of an investment portfolio should have more than one stock or other similar investment. Investments should be spread over geographical areas of the world such as Asia, America, Europe and also emerging markets. In addition several market or industrial sectors should be used so as to avoid the risk of a sector collapsing and a huge lose of capital.

Investors tend to be lone wolves and don’t take advice easily however even though you might not take the advice at least listen to it some of it might make sense. Try and invest in the companies whose products you like. Try to analyze the companies you are interested in and see if you like their business strategies. There are many resources on the internet that can help you understand investments. Also although an investments past performance is no guarantee that in the future it will perform well it can be prudent to choose investments that have been strong performers over the last couple of years.

Another tip is to keep an eye on your investments. Don’t invest and then forget about them. Even if you are investing for the long term you need to make sure that you have investments that are performing as you had expected against the market indices. Don’t be tempted to sell investments that are doing well to take your profit; you are in it for the long term so investments that are doing well should continue to grow. On the other hand investments that are not doing well should be sold and replaced. Remember that it is better to lose a little rather than wait in the hope that the investment will do better when in fact it continues to do badly and you lose more money.

Don’t be tempted to cash in your dividends as the return on an investment is a combination of reinvested dividends and stock appreciation. The yields might seem small but over a period of years they can make a big difference. Part of the analysis of your potential investments is looking at stocks that have a history of regular dividends.

One of the golden rules of investing is that when the market is down then that is the best time to buy stocks and when the stock index market is high its time to sell the stocks that are not performing so well and reinvest the proceeds in other instruments such as bonds or real estate.

Finally as you are investing for the long term it is important that you don’t reduce your funds through unnecessary fees and commissions. Keep your trading down to a minimum so as not to incur fees that reduce your funds. When the markets turn down don’t make the mistake of panic selling. The economy goes in cycles so a market that is down will soon move up again. Always bear in mind that a market that is low presents a buying opportunity.

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The Benefits of Liquid Investment Trading

The main benefit of investment trading in a liquid market is the flexibility of buying and selling assets.

Investment liquidity is the ability of an asset to be bought or sold without causing price movements of any significance. The most liquid asset is cash as it can be used immediately to carry out economic activities but for trading purposes the really liquid markets are forex, stocks and commodities in that order.

The Benefits of Liquid Investment Trading:

An asset is classed as liquid when it can be sold quickly without any loss in value, at any time during market hours. The crucial characteristic of a market classed as deeply liquid is that there are eager sellers and buyers available at all times and that the price of the next trade is equivalent to the preceding one.

A major benefit of trading in a liquid market is that the most liquid market, foreign exchange, is open 24 hours a day except for weekends. You can decide to trade in your own time frame, after work, before you go to work or even at work.

Liquid markets are so much more efficient in that when there is many sellers and many buyers, the price at which the trade is done is very close if not the same as the last market price. Again the most efficient market is the foreign exchange market as it has a trading volume that is over 50 times larger than the New York Stock Exchange.

Another benefit from trading in liquid markets is volatility. When a price fluctuates as it does in a liquid market more trading opportunities are available. If you buy an asset and its price doesn’t move there is little or no opportunity to make a profit. Volatility is the magnitude of the level of a price’s fluctuation and its frequency of fluctuation. Volatility is measured as the maximum return that can be generated with perfect prescience. For example the average volatility for stock is 70 but the average volatility for a currency is 500. Day traders in particular can exploit this greater volatility in the currency markets.

A further benefit of investing in a liquid market like the currency markets is that there are no commission fees and no transaction fees. The fees are all in the spread and there is hardly any ‘slippage’ cost. Slippage is a cost that a trader incurs when entering the market at a worse price than the price level they wanted. For low volume trades slippage is not such a problem but for high volume trades it could be.

Leverage can be a big benefit for investors who are investing in liquid markets, particularly the currency markets. Using leverage an investor can trade the equivalent of $10,000 and depending on the broker the investor is trading through, the investor only needs between $50 and $200. This makes it possible for an investor in a liquid market to profit from a small trading account.

The benefits of trading and investing in a liquid market are numerous and give the investor greater flexibility to buy or sell investment assets.

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A Profitable Strategy for Trading the News

 Trading the news can only be done profitably if the news release in question triggers enough volatility in the currency pair affected by the news release.

Introduction:

Currency traders not only have to educate themselves on technical analysis but also they need to learn the fundamentals of fundamental analysis. This means that they should study over a period of several months the economic calendar and note the important economic events that occur on a monthly basis. They then need to observe the strength of the impact these events have on the currency trading pairs  and whether the impact has a positive or negative affect on their traded currency.

A Profitable Trading Strategy for Trading the News:

One of the news items that can have a major affect on the EUR/USD currency pair is the publication of the Retail Sales Report. In order to trade the report there needs to be enough deviation between the numbers expected and the numbers published. Historically the deviation that has the most effect on the EUR/USD currency pair is 20%.

If the retail sales number published is 20% worse than the consensus number then the dollar is impacted negatively so the strategy is to buy the Euro.

If the retail sales number published is 20% better than the consensus number then the dollar is impacted positively, so the strategy is to sell the Euro.

The strategy set up is as follows:

Check the economic calendar to see what the consensus number is for the retail sales. Decide on the percentage deviation that will activate a trade. Say the consensus number is 0.3% then a 0.1% change either up or down is sufficient to generate the volatility you require to trade.

Just before the retail sales number is published place a buy stop 15 pips above the current price of the EUR/USD currency pair. At the same time place a sell stop 15 pips below the current price of the EUR/USD currency pair. The 15 pip margin should take care of any slippage due to choppiness or extreme market noise. Also make sure you place your stop loss correctly. The best strategy is to place the stop loss on the buy side at the price of the sell order and the stop loss for the sell order should be the price of the buy order.

When the news is released you need to watch what the market does. If the market moves in the direction of your buy order then cancel your sell order and if it moves in the direction of your sell order than cancel your buy order. Exit the trade when the initial volatility has calmed down as it’s possible that the market could slip back to where it was before that news release.

This strategy is an excellent strategy for all news releases that have a strong effect on a currency pair. The only difference between the various news items is that you need to historically study the effect that the news items have on different currency pairs and what size of percentage deviation from the consensus number triggers a volatile market response either negatively or positively. The set up will be the same for any currency pair effected by the news item.

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EUR/USD Currency Pair

The international currency market is built on principles of buying one currency and selling another. The daily market turnover is about 3 million US dollars. With the help of brokers and dealing centers one can trade almost any world currency.
In this article we consider one of the most popular currency pairs – EUR/USD. The euro-dollar currency pair appeared on April 7, 1989. The initial EUR/USD rate was 1.0445.
Statistics for 2007 confirms that 27% of all operations are executed with euro-dollar currency pair. To the present time EUR/USD pair has been the most traded and popular in the international currency market Forex. The pair is interesting both for professionals of currency speculations and absolute novices of trading. It is one of the most active pairs in the market and notable for insignificant volatility, attracting traders with different experience on Forex. EUR/USD pair movements are smooth, but during the day high activity can be noticed and used by the intraday and short-term traders for getting great profit.
Traders who actively work with the euro-dollar currency pair should be always aware of economic events in the USA and Eurozone. The pair adheres to the trend trading. Entering the market trader should estimate the current prices, draw a trend and find the historical levels of short trading prospect.
Every currency pair in the market has its own peculiarities and suffers from impact of different factors. Traders should realize these peculiarities and trade paying great attention to them.

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What is Swap-free or Islamic Accounts

Swap-free accounts are also called Islamic because owners of such accounts exercise Islamic religion. According to the rules of the Mohammedan religion, any business transactions, where one of the parties must pay or get an interest from another party, are prohibited.

Islamic or Swap-free accounts allow trading any currency pair and if a position is carried over midnight, a trader does not earn and there is nothing to withdraw from trader's account, regardless of the open position volume. Islamic accounts were created special for Muslims, because crediting swaps and interests is against their religion.

Accounts which are not influenced by swap allow their owners to hold positions as long as it is necessary. In this case the result of trading depends only on the currency rates change during a certain period of time.

Due to this peculiarity Swap-free accounts became popular in both Islamic countries and worldwide. Many Forex brokers provide swap-free service for free

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Buy Usd/Cad

Buy Usd/Cad - 0.9895
Stop Loss - 0.9800
Take profit - 35 pips, 70 pips

Trade on Ur risk

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Forex Cross Currency Pairs

On Forex there are cross currency pairs, which do not include the US dollar, unlike major currency pairs.
The analysis of the US dollar movement is of crucial importance in trading major currency pairs. The analysis of the second currency quoted in a pair (EUR - the euro, JPY - the Japanese yen, CHF - the Swiss franc, GBP - the British pound) is not that essential. Trading major currency pairs is quite a profitable strategy. Still, dealing with such pairs is worth trying, once you have gained some experience on Forex.
Cross currency pairs. The value of a currency in such pair is denominated in other currency units - not in USD. The rates of these pairs are called cross rates.
The most-traded pairs are those with euro, for instance, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY. These pairs are distinctive due to their high liquidity. A currency pair can sometimes be more liquid than USD/CHF because of institutional players, willing to work with the Swiss franc.
The yen is an integral part of another cluster of cross currency pairs: CAD/JPY - the Canadian dollar and yen, NZD/JPY - the New Zealand dollar and yen, as well as GBP/JPY - the British pound and yen. This cross currency cluster is quite popular with investors and traders, as they can engage in carry trade with its pairs. Carry Trade is selling a certain currency at a relatively low interest rate (for example, the yen) and then buying a currency at a higher one. This scheme enables a trader to gain profit from the difference between two rates.

The highest interest rates are those of the following developed countries: Canada, New Zealand and Great Britain. The currencies of these countries are thus the most widely used in carry trade against the Japanese yen.
A trader dealing with major currency pairs can face a situation, when the US dollar is just as strong as the second currency quoted in pair. The situation is tricky as USD is rather unpredictable.
 If both the USA and Eurozone show persistent economic growth, it is unclear what decision to make - either to open or close a trade. Trading in EUR/JPY is optimal when the yen is under pressure of geopolitical factor, for example.
The most popular cross currency pairs are as follows:

EUR/CHF - Eurozone is Switzerland`s major trade partner. The Swiss franc has rather low interest rate, which makes this currency preferred for carry trade operations. The pair has been showing a positive trend since 2006.

EUR/JPY - A much-used cross currency pair owing to its interrelation with USD/JPY and EUR/USD. Traders often speculate on its movement, relying upon interest rates and differences between the growth rates of Japan and Eurozone.

NZD/JPY - This pair is in great demand among cross currency pairs at carry trade dealing, as it has the widest difference between the interest rates. The pair is good for long positions, particularly if general fundamental and technical indicators are favourable for its growth.

EUR/GBP - Eurozone is the second important trade partner for Great Britain. So, if a trader takes into account fundamental factors related to England and the British pound, he is sure to work with this particular pair since GBP/USD is most affected by USD movement in the market.

CAD/JPY - One can use the ability to foresee the upcoming oil prices trend trading with this cross currency pair. Canada is the second on the list of largest oil reserves in the world. This country is a net oil exporter, so that it gains profit from rising oil prices, whereas the major oil importer, Japan, suffers losses. Thus, opening long positions with this pair is the most profitable ahead of oil price spike.
Working with cross currency pairs, a trader can open carry trade deals. Difference between two countries is a good advantage in trade. Each cross currency pair has its characteristics, interest rates differences; it is dependent on certain political and economic events determining its trend.

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Sell Nzd/Usd

Sell Nzd/Usd @0.8270

S.l - 0.8370
t.p - 40pips nd 70 pips

Trade on ur risk

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The Prime Time For Daily Forex Trading

Investors and traders can trade currencies worldwide, in any trading zone, 24 hours a day, in today's foreign exchange market. London, Japan and New York top the top three currency traders among the currency dealers. These currencies are being traded 24 hours a day. The only time that currencies stop trading is on Friday when the Japanese market shuts its doors. There is a one day window after Japan closes before Europe steps in on Monday morning to open for business.

The majority of trading comes from banks, brokerages and investment companies. Companies that sell and buy foreign currencies as part of their business, like independent brokers and currency dealers, make up only a small part of the foreign exchange currency trading. The Forex market will continue to develop and grow at a steady pace as more currency traders become aware of the foreign exchange markets potential for earning and raising capital. The Forex market reaches an average daily turnover 30 times higher than any other U.S. market.

Added to the drive for supply and demand, the Forex market presses on as the enormous scope for profit potential among the currency dealers is steadily rising. The Forex market also uses the free floating system that is considered more practical for today's foreign exchange market which can experience a change in the currency rates at an estimated 4.8 seconds. The Forex market is taking on a prodigious role in the country's economy, after developing from connective financial centers to one unified market. Having expanded worldwide, the Forex market is reflecting the constant growth of all international trades and their countries. When you consider the size of the foreign exchange market, it would be important to understand that any transactions that are made with a future trading broker or an independent broker, can lead to more transactions. This can be due to the brokerage businesses as they work to readjust their positions.

Understanding your overall portfolio and its sensitivity to market unpredictability is necessary in order to be an effective day trader. This is especially important when trading foreign exchange currencies, because these currencies are priced in pairs and no single pair will trade completely independently of the others. Gaining an understanding of these correlations and how they can change will help you use them to your advantage to control your portfolio's exposure.

Correlations Defined

There is a reason for the interdependence of foreign currency pairs. For instance, if you were trading the British pound (GBP) against the Japanese yen (JPY) or GBP/JPY pair, then you're trading a type of derivative of the USD/JPY and GBP/USD pairs. Therefore, the GBP/JPY must be slightly correlated to one or both of the other currency pairs. Even so, the interdependence amongst these currencies will stem from more than the fact that they are in pairs. While there are some currencies that will move one right behind the other, the other currency pairs can move in different directions often resulting in a more complex force. In the financial world, correlation is the statistical measure of a relationship between two securities.

Then there is the correlation coefficient that ranges between -1 and +1. The correlation of +1 indicates that two currency pairs can move in the same direction nearly 100% of the time. While the correlations of -1 indicates that two currency pairs are likely to move in the opposite direction 100% of the time. If the correlation is zero, this indicates that the relationships between the currency pairs will be completely at random.

Correlations are not always stable. Correlations change, just as the global economic system and other various factors can change on a daily basis, making the ability to follow the shift in correlations very important. The correlations of today may not be in line with the long-term correlations between any two-currency pairs. This is why it's suggested to take a look at the past six months trailing correlation to provide a more clear perspective on the average relationship between the two currency pairs. This change is the result of a variety of reasons — the most common reasons being a currency pair's predisposition to commodity prices, the diverging monetary policies and unique political and economic circumstances.

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Buy Gold, Eur/Usd and GBP/Usd

Xau: buy at 1679 tp 1686, 1693.50
stop: 1672.50
Eur/usd: buy at 1.2826, tp 1.2865, 1.2900
stop: 1.2785
GBP/USD: buy AT 1.6026, TP 1.6070,1.6108
STOP: 1.5988

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Buy Silver

Buy Silver @ 30.85
S.l - 30.00
T.p -  31.20 ,31.50

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Tips For beginners

Tip 1. Develop a trading strategy or adopt an existing one and make sure it works on historical FOREX data. Then make sure it works on a demo account, and finally make sure it works on your life account with mini-lots. Then you can trade using regular FOREX lot sizes. Trading without a proven strategy cannot be profitable over a long period of time.

Tip 2. When you trade, always consider the current trend. Depending on the timeframe you trade in, it can be daily, monthly or global trend. It can also be flat, especially during the summer months. If the market is in a trend, open positions in the direction of the trend only. If it is flat, you can trade in both directions within the channel.

Tip 3. Before opening your position, take into consideration the larger timeframe. Check all the important levels, previous extremums and the direction the market is moving towards on the global scale. Very often volatility is extremely high at important levels, where certainty is low. If you trade intraday, check the daily timeframe to make sure you do not trade against the monthly trend.

Tip 4. Use a smaller timeframe to find the best entry and exit points. If you trade on H1 charts, use M15 charts to find the best entry and exit points. If you trade on daily charts, use H1 charts to find best entry and exit points.

Tip 5. Learn how to manage your risks. Your deposit is your workhorse, and if you lose it, you are out of business. This is the reason why you should not risk more than 5% of your deposit per trade under any circumstances. In my FOREX tips, I recommend to risk even less. 2-3% is the safest way to go.

Tip 6. Learn to control your emotions. Watch for fear and greed and follow your trading system no matter what. When you start opening and closing positions based on what you feel and not based on what your system tells you, you start to lose your money. The more money you lose, the more chaotic your trading becomes and the more money you lose as a result. The same happens if you win too many trades in a single row. You start feeling yourself like a “God”, lose your mind, and start ignoring your system, which usually leads to big losses. Always stay calm no matter whether you win or lose. It’s ok to lose a single trade or a number of trades in a row. After losing trades you usually get winning trades, which compensate your losses, and the opposite is also true.

Tip 7. Your trading strategy must complement your lifestyle and personality. If you can trade only a few hours a day, choose a strategy that is based on delayed orders, and use larger timeframes such as daily and monthly timeframes. If you cannot wait for big market movements, use a smaller timeframe, such as M5 or M15. Perhaps, a scalping strategy will best suit you. If you need hours or days to make a decision, use larger timeframes and trade long-term.

Tip 8. If you are in doubt, or when the markets are uncertain, refrain from trading. Staying away and not trading is also a position, often called “neutral position”. By not trading you avoid losses, and prepare to take a big win when uncertainty is over and a new trend emerges.

Tip 9. Limit your losses by using protective stop-loss orders or hedging. If you open a position in a wrong direction, stop-loss or hedging order will kick in saving your deposit. You will lose this single trade, and your deposit will shrink a bit which is fine. But if you don’t use preventive stop-losses, your stop-loss in your entire deposit. Are you sure you want to risk your workhorse for the sake of a single transaction?

Tip 10. Before accepting a trade signal, check if Profit/Loss ratio of the trade is at least 2:1. When you forecast a price movement, you forecast profit and loss targets. Divide projected profit in pips by projected loss in pips, and you will get this ratio. Do not enter the market if you come up with a number less than 2. History has proven the fact that traders cannot forecast price movements with greater probability than 60%. This is the reason why choosing P/L ration of at least 2:1 is the only way to stay profitable over the long term.

Tip 11. Never add positions to a losing trade. If you think that market is about to turn around and desperately want to add positions to your losing trade at a “better price”, it means you are trading on emotions. Market will not turn around and you will lose more money than you have originally planned. Some people even remove stop-loss orders if market starts to move against an open position to “prevent” losses, and increase this position at a “better price” at the same time. Guess what happens to these people in a little while? In my FOREX tips I recommend you to add positions to a trade ONLY if it is a winning trade, and ONLY if you know that the market still has some momentum and will probably reach your target.

Tip 12. Cut your losses and allow your profits to grow. Close losing positions without a hesitation and let winning positions to accumulate more profit. Do not be afraid that the market will turn around and you will lose those 20 pips you’ve made for a couple of hours. Set stop-loss order to zero, and allow the profit to grow. Once you get a good profit, you can protect it by moving your stop-loss order higher to let’s say +80 pips to allow more profits to be generated.

Tip 13. Know active market hours for the currency pairs you are trading. The greatest movements happen with GBPUSD and EURUSD when London and New York sessions overlap (between 8:00am and 11:00am EST). The same happens with AUDJPY pair when Sydney and Tokyo sessions overlap (between 7:00pm and 12:00am EST). It’s easier and safer to initiate a trade when market takes of, and quickly moves towards your target, than to sit for hours near terminal waiting for the price to move some 20 pips.

Tip 14. Trading day of week matters. You do not want to be on the market when the trading volume is extremely low, or when the majority of traders close their positions. This is the reason why you should avoid Mondays and Fridays. Mondays tend to be flatty and shaky, and Fridays way too volatile because on Fridays many traders close their weekly positions.

Tip 15. Avoid highly leveraged FOREX accounts unless you know what you are doing. The more your account is leveraged, the greater your risk is, and the more careful you should be as a result. For a novice trader any account with leverage more than 100:1 can be disastrous. Leverage stands for multiplication. 100:1 means that for every dollar you have on your account, you can trade $100 dollars. But if you open a position and market moves against you, you loose your money 100x times faster than without a leverage.

Tip 16. Evaluate your trading skills by the end of a month or year. Do not judge about your trading success or failure on a single trade. You need to prove yourself over a long period of time. Do not think about the end result every time you close your positions. Make a number of trades, then analyze the end result. A winning strategy may give you 10 loosing trades in a row with -15 pips loss, and one successful trade with +300 pips profit per month, and over the period of a year this strategy can yield +2000 pips net profit. But if you judge it within the bad days, you may give up too early.

Tip 17. No one is born a successful trader. People become successful traders by learning how to stay successful over a long period of time. You may need a couple of burned deposits until you get it right. This is the reason why your first live account should be a FOREX mini account not greater than $1,000 USD. Once your prove you can stay profitable for a long period of time, you can deposit more and start using regular lot sizes.

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Buy Oil

Crude Oil: buy at 86.65, tp 87.30,88.00
stop:86.00

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Sell Aud/Jpy

Sell Aud/Jpy @83.40
T.p 83.00 ,82.77
S.l - 84.50

Trade on ur risk

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