Showing posts with label forex money management. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forex money management. Show all posts

Tuesday, 1 January 2013

Controlling risk = successful trading

Controlling risk is one of the most important ingredients of successful trading. While it is emotionally more appealing to focus on the upside of trading, every trader should know precisely how much he is willing to lose on each trade before cutting losses, and how much he is willing to lose in his account before ceasing trading and re-evaluating.

Risk will essentially be controlled in two ways:
by exiting losing trades before losses exceed your pre-determined maximum tolerance (or "cutting losses").
by limiting the "leverage" or position size you trade for a given account size.

Cutting Losses
Too often, the beginning trader will be overly concerned about incurring losing trades. He therefore lets losses mount, with the "hope" that the market will turn around and the loss will turn into a gain.

Almost all successful trading strategies include a disciplined procedure for cutting losses.  When a trader is down on a positions, many emotions often come into play, making it difficult to cut losses at the right level. The best practice is to decide where losses will be cut before a trade is even initiated. This will assure the trader of the maximum amount he can expect to lose on the trade.

The other key element of risk control is overall account risk. In other words, a trader should know before he begins his trading endeavor how much of his account he is willing to lose before ceasing trading and re-evaluating his strategy. If you open an account with $2,000, are you willing to lose all $2,000?  $1,000? As with risk control on individual trades, the most important discipline is to decide on a level and stick with it.

Determining Position Size
Before beginning any trading program, an assessment should be made of the maximum account loss that is likely to occur over time, per lot. For example, assume you have determined that your worse case loss on any trade is 30 pips. That translates into approximately $300 per $100,000 position size.  Further assume that the $100,000 position size is equal to one lot.  Five consecutive losing trades would result in a loss of $1,500 (5 x $300); a difficult period but not to be unexpected over the long run. For a $10,000 account trading one lot, this translates into a 15% loss.  Therefore, even though it may be possible to trade 5 lots or more with a $10,000 account, this analysis suggests that the resulting "drawdown" would be too great (75% or more of the account value would be wiped out). 
Any trader should have a sense of this maximum loss per lot, and then determine the amount he wishes to trade for a given account size that will yield tolerable drawdowns.

Sunday, 2 December 2012

A Profitable Strategy for Trading the News

 Trading the news can only be done profitably if the news release in question triggers enough volatility in the currency pair affected by the news release.

Introduction:

Currency traders not only have to educate themselves on technical analysis but also they need to learn the fundamentals of fundamental analysis. This means that they should study over a period of several months the economic calendar and note the important economic events that occur on a monthly basis. They then need to observe the strength of the impact these events have on the currency trading pairs  and whether the impact has a positive or negative affect on their traded currency.

A Profitable Trading Strategy for Trading the News:

One of the news items that can have a major affect on the EUR/USD currency pair is the publication of the Retail Sales Report. In order to trade the report there needs to be enough deviation between the numbers expected and the numbers published. Historically the deviation that has the most effect on the EUR/USD currency pair is 20%.

If the retail sales number published is 20% worse than the consensus number then the dollar is impacted negatively so the strategy is to buy the Euro.

If the retail sales number published is 20% better than the consensus number then the dollar is impacted positively, so the strategy is to sell the Euro.

The strategy set up is as follows:

Check the economic calendar to see what the consensus number is for the retail sales. Decide on the percentage deviation that will activate a trade. Say the consensus number is 0.3% then a 0.1% change either up or down is sufficient to generate the volatility you require to trade.

Just before the retail sales number is published place a buy stop 15 pips above the current price of the EUR/USD currency pair. At the same time place a sell stop 15 pips below the current price of the EUR/USD currency pair. The 15 pip margin should take care of any slippage due to choppiness or extreme market noise. Also make sure you place your stop loss correctly. The best strategy is to place the stop loss on the buy side at the price of the sell order and the stop loss for the sell order should be the price of the buy order.

When the news is released you need to watch what the market does. If the market moves in the direction of your buy order then cancel your sell order and if it moves in the direction of your sell order than cancel your buy order. Exit the trade when the initial volatility has calmed down as it’s possible that the market could slip back to where it was before that news release.

This strategy is an excellent strategy for all news releases that have a strong effect on a currency pair. The only difference between the various news items is that you need to historically study the effect that the news items have on different currency pairs and what size of percentage deviation from the consensus number triggers a volatile market response either negatively or positively. The set up will be the same for any currency pair effected by the news item.

Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Money Management Techniques

When trading on Forex, it is necessary to know how to properly place your capital; how to calculate the amount of funds needed to make a trade in order to obtain sufficient earnings; and if it comes to loss, how not to loose your entire deposit.

To achieve these goals, there are special equity management methods (money management techniques):

No equity management methods. Most traders, when opening a position, do not calculate the amount of funds that are being used, estimate potential earnings or potential loss. This is considered to be a technique too, but if the capital is not very large to begin with, several unsuccessful trades will make it completely disappear.

Multiple contracts. Opening several positions on the foreign exchange market on different instruments, for instance, EURUSD and EURGBP, a trader can earn profit if the price moves in the right direction. Earnings can be considerable, losses too though.

Fixed amount. Depending on the amount of funds available, a trader decides how much can be put at risk when opening one or another position. The trader then makes deals not exceeding this amount.

Fixed equity interest rate. This technique is similar to the previous one but there is one small difference: the trader determines the equity interest rate, but not the equity amount.

Establishing correlation between profits and losses. It is necessary to track statistics on all operations (the amount of losses, profits and the correspondence between them). When you see the correlation between them, you can apply what you have learned to your trading.

Equity curve trading. Most people are acquainted with moving averages, which can act like signals for entering the market or leaving it. According to this method, moving averages (long- and short-term) are used to forecast trade results. If the short-term moving average of the equity curve is above the long one, a position can be opened and it will be profitable. If, however, the short-term moving average is below the long one, it is better to wait for a while.

Choosing a particular money management technique of trading on Forex can help you rationally use your money on the market and earn profit. Money management techniques are used for opening positions.

Trader Insight