Showing posts with label forex strategies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forex strategies. Show all posts

Thursday, 6 December 2012

The best hours to trade Forex

The highly volatile and dynamic market of currency trading is built on the price changes of currency pairs that are being traded. There can be any number of price changes oscillating from high to low and back within any given minute. The Forex market is volatile and busy due to the number of traders buying and selling currencies. Demand and supply is the same and rules regarding these apply in the same way as in any other market. An investor who wants profitable trades can start at the time the market is at its busiest. This means that the investor will be able to find either buyers or sellers for his currency trading.

One salient point about the Forex market is that you are always able to find a buyer or a seller for your currency trading needs. This is an aspect of currency trading that is a distinct advantage to traders. For one thing, you can trade at any time during the day or night as the market is open at one of the sessions around the world. This access to the market is one factor for its popularity among retail traders. Trading starts off in New Zealand and is followed closely by Australia, Asia, Middle East, Europe and finally America. Each of these market sessions has their own characteristics. Out of these sessions more than 50% of the trading is done during the European session and the American session. Therefore, a trader who wants to trade more profitably should concentrate on these two sessions.

The different sessions around the world at time overlap each other in trading hours. These overlapping time periods offer the most dynamic and profitable trades for the investor. Out of the overlapping time periods the best are when London and New York sessions overlap. This gives the investor the most dynamic and busiest time in the entire Forex market offering the best potential for profits.

As a trader or an investor in the foreign exchange market it is best to study the overlapping time periods and trade within them. A close study will reveal that the New York session overlaps the London session during 8:00 am and 12 Noon EST. Most big market moves originate during the London session and the time that overlaps the New York session.

Sunday, 2 December 2012

A Profitable Strategy for Trading the News

 Trading the news can only be done profitably if the news release in question triggers enough volatility in the currency pair affected by the news release.

Introduction:

Currency traders not only have to educate themselves on technical analysis but also they need to learn the fundamentals of fundamental analysis. This means that they should study over a period of several months the economic calendar and note the important economic events that occur on a monthly basis. They then need to observe the strength of the impact these events have on the currency trading pairs  and whether the impact has a positive or negative affect on their traded currency.

A Profitable Trading Strategy for Trading the News:

One of the news items that can have a major affect on the EUR/USD currency pair is the publication of the Retail Sales Report. In order to trade the report there needs to be enough deviation between the numbers expected and the numbers published. Historically the deviation that has the most effect on the EUR/USD currency pair is 20%.

If the retail sales number published is 20% worse than the consensus number then the dollar is impacted negatively so the strategy is to buy the Euro.

If the retail sales number published is 20% better than the consensus number then the dollar is impacted positively, so the strategy is to sell the Euro.

The strategy set up is as follows:

Check the economic calendar to see what the consensus number is for the retail sales. Decide on the percentage deviation that will activate a trade. Say the consensus number is 0.3% then a 0.1% change either up or down is sufficient to generate the volatility you require to trade.

Just before the retail sales number is published place a buy stop 15 pips above the current price of the EUR/USD currency pair. At the same time place a sell stop 15 pips below the current price of the EUR/USD currency pair. The 15 pip margin should take care of any slippage due to choppiness or extreme market noise. Also make sure you place your stop loss correctly. The best strategy is to place the stop loss on the buy side at the price of the sell order and the stop loss for the sell order should be the price of the buy order.

When the news is released you need to watch what the market does. If the market moves in the direction of your buy order then cancel your sell order and if it moves in the direction of your sell order than cancel your buy order. Exit the trade when the initial volatility has calmed down as it’s possible that the market could slip back to where it was before that news release.

This strategy is an excellent strategy for all news releases that have a strong effect on a currency pair. The only difference between the various news items is that you need to historically study the effect that the news items have on different currency pairs and what size of percentage deviation from the consensus number triggers a volatile market response either negatively or positively. The set up will be the same for any currency pair effected by the news item.

Friday, 9 November 2012

Technical analysis Principles

Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movement by data comparison in different time frames and by eliciting regularities of market behavior. Application of a technical analysis in Forex activities is irreplaceable for the most of traders.
Technical analysis is based on three general principles:
1. Market movement is taken into account by everybody
The price is always impacted by external factors, however technical analysis implies that investigation of political, economic and psychological factors influencing the price movement is not obligatory, as the main motion indicator is the price as it is. Any slight influence of factors is considered and reflected by a price, that is why it will be the object of study.
2. Price movement moves in a certain direction
For applying a technical analysis it is necessary to comprehend the trend meaning. The main goal of a technical approach is determination of price move tendency in order to trade in compliance with this trend.
There are three trend types:
•  Bullish when price moves up
•  Bearish when price moves down
•  Flat - has no certain price move direction

As a rule, during the price movement you can elicit each of trend types, but only one of them can be major. Worth keeping in mind that tendency change takes place only after it gives certain signals.
3. History repeats itself
This principle implicates that in the course of human history the rules and analysis types do not change, that preconditions a multiple repeating of price movement on different time intervals.
The market dynamics is primarily studied by means of charts during a technical analysis. The main tools are as follows:
•  Oscillators
•  Japanese candlesticks
•  Bar chart (intervals)
•  Line chart
•  Trend indicators
•  Wave analysis

Technical analysis can be a foundational forecasting instrument in the currency market. This technique is successfully used by professional traders and analysts of Forex. Their long experience points to practicability of using technical analysis in trading.

Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Forex Cross Currency Pairs

On Forex there are cross currency pairs, which do not include the US dollar, unlike major currency pairs.
The analysis of the US dollar movement is of crucial importance in trading major currency pairs. The analysis of the second currency quoted in a pair (EUR - the euro, JPY - the Japanese yen, CHF - the Swiss franc, GBP - the British pound) is not that essential. Trading major currency pairs is quite a profitable strategy. Still, dealing with such pairs is worth trying, once you have gained some experience on Forex.
Cross currency pairs. The value of a currency in such pair is denominated in other currency units - not in USD. The rates of these pairs are called cross rates.
The most-traded pairs are those with euro, for instance, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY. These pairs are distinctive due to their high liquidity. A currency pair can sometimes be more liquid than USD/CHF because of institutional players, willing to work with the Swiss franc.
The yen is an integral part of another cluster of cross currency pairs: CAD/JPY - the Canadian dollar and yen, NZD/JPY - the New Zealand dollar and yen, as well as GBP/JPY - the British pound and yen. This cross currency cluster is quite popular with investors and traders, as they can engage in carry trade with its pairs. Carry Trade is selling a certain currency at a relatively low interest rate (for example, the yen) and then buying a currency at a higher one. This scheme enables a trader to gain profit from the difference between two rates.

The highest interest rates are those of the following developed countries: Canada, New Zealand and Great Britain. The currencies of these countries are thus the most widely used in carry trade against the Japanese yen.
A trader dealing with major currency pairs can face a situation, when the US dollar is just as strong as the second currency quoted in pair. The situation is tricky as USD is rather unpredictable.
 If both the USA and Eurozone show persistent economic growth, it is unclear what decision to make - either to open or close a trade. Trading in EUR/JPY is optimal when the yen is under pressure of geopolitical factor, for example.
The most popular cross currency pairs are as follows:

EUR/CHF - Eurozone is Switzerland`s major trade partner. The Swiss franc has rather low interest rate, which makes this currency preferred for carry trade operations. The pair has been showing a positive trend since 2006.

EUR/JPY - A much-used cross currency pair owing to its interrelation with USD/JPY and EUR/USD. Traders often speculate on its movement, relying upon interest rates and differences between the growth rates of Japan and Eurozone.

NZD/JPY - This pair is in great demand among cross currency pairs at carry trade dealing, as it has the widest difference between the interest rates. The pair is good for long positions, particularly if general fundamental and technical indicators are favourable for its growth.

EUR/GBP - Eurozone is the second important trade partner for Great Britain. So, if a trader takes into account fundamental factors related to England and the British pound, he is sure to work with this particular pair since GBP/USD is most affected by USD movement in the market.

CAD/JPY - One can use the ability to foresee the upcoming oil prices trend trading with this cross currency pair. Canada is the second on the list of largest oil reserves in the world. This country is a net oil exporter, so that it gains profit from rising oil prices, whereas the major oil importer, Japan, suffers losses. Thus, opening long positions with this pair is the most profitable ahead of oil price spike.
Working with cross currency pairs, a trader can open carry trade deals. Difference between two countries is a good advantage in trade. Each cross currency pair has its characteristics, interest rates differences; it is dependent on certain political and economic events determining its trend.

Money Management Techniques

When trading on Forex, it is necessary to know how to properly place your capital; how to calculate the amount of funds needed to make a trade in order to obtain sufficient earnings; and if it comes to loss, how not to loose your entire deposit.

To achieve these goals, there are special equity management methods (money management techniques):

No equity management methods. Most traders, when opening a position, do not calculate the amount of funds that are being used, estimate potential earnings or potential loss. This is considered to be a technique too, but if the capital is not very large to begin with, several unsuccessful trades will make it completely disappear.

Multiple contracts. Opening several positions on the foreign exchange market on different instruments, for instance, EURUSD and EURGBP, a trader can earn profit if the price moves in the right direction. Earnings can be considerable, losses too though.

Fixed amount. Depending on the amount of funds available, a trader decides how much can be put at risk when opening one or another position. The trader then makes deals not exceeding this amount.

Fixed equity interest rate. This technique is similar to the previous one but there is one small difference: the trader determines the equity interest rate, but not the equity amount.

Establishing correlation between profits and losses. It is necessary to track statistics on all operations (the amount of losses, profits and the correspondence between them). When you see the correlation between them, you can apply what you have learned to your trading.

Equity curve trading. Most people are acquainted with moving averages, which can act like signals for entering the market or leaving it. According to this method, moving averages (long- and short-term) are used to forecast trade results. If the short-term moving average of the equity curve is above the long one, a position can be opened and it will be profitable. If, however, the short-term moving average is below the long one, it is better to wait for a while.

Choosing a particular money management technique of trading on Forex can help you rationally use your money on the market and earn profit. Money management techniques are used for opening positions.

Strategy 20 pips a day - Make Atleast 400 pips per week

Forex scalping strategy “20 pips a day” enables a trader to gain 20 pips daily, i.e. at least 400 pips a weak.
According to this strategy the given currency pair must move actively during the day and also be as volatile as possible. The GBP/USD and USD/CAD pairs are considered as the best. Trading should begin no earlier than 12.30 GMT due to the volatile movements of American session, provided that this day no breaking news on economy is expected. But in case there is, it is necessary to enter the market after the news release.
A trader is recommended to choose a 30 minute interval setting a standard average Momentum 5 indicator in the trading terminal and 20 SMA moving average.

A close candle located above the 20 SMA and Momentum indicator fixed above the average level indicate the point of the market entry for further purchase. When the price drops below the moving average and Momentum Indicator is located lower than the average level, it is necessary to open a sell deal. When a deal is open and the price is ready to cross the 20 SMA line, the position should be closed.
Stop loss and Take profit are set on the level of 20 pips. As the interval is quite small, it is possible to use Trailing stop (from 1 pip). As another option, the order can be placed to the zero are when the price has passed 10 pips.
The creators of the strategy believe that the strategy 20 pips a day can be profitable only if each recommendation listed above is observed.
 

Monday, 5 November 2012

Sell Nzd/Usd

Sell Nzd/Usd @0.8270

S.l - 0.8370
t.p - 40pips nd 70 pips

Trade on ur risk

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Use This Coupon Codes And Get $20 Free to Trade

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Sunday, 4 November 2012

Buy Gold, Eur/Usd and GBP/Usd

Xau: buy at 1679 tp 1686, 1693.50
stop: 1672.50
Eur/usd: buy at 1.2826, tp 1.2865, 1.2900
stop: 1.2785
GBP/USD: buy AT 1.6026, TP 1.6070,1.6108
STOP: 1.5988

Buy Silver

Buy Silver @ 30.85
S.l - 30.00
T.p -  31.20 ,31.50

Saturday, 3 November 2012

Tips For beginners

Tip 1. Develop a trading strategy or adopt an existing one and make sure it works on historical FOREX data. Then make sure it works on a demo account, and finally make sure it works on your life account with mini-lots. Then you can trade using regular FOREX lot sizes. Trading without a proven strategy cannot be profitable over a long period of time.

Tip 2. When you trade, always consider the current trend. Depending on the timeframe you trade in, it can be daily, monthly or global trend. It can also be flat, especially during the summer months. If the market is in a trend, open positions in the direction of the trend only. If it is flat, you can trade in both directions within the channel.

Tip 3. Before opening your position, take into consideration the larger timeframe. Check all the important levels, previous extremums and the direction the market is moving towards on the global scale. Very often volatility is extremely high at important levels, where certainty is low. If you trade intraday, check the daily timeframe to make sure you do not trade against the monthly trend.

Tip 4. Use a smaller timeframe to find the best entry and exit points. If you trade on H1 charts, use M15 charts to find the best entry and exit points. If you trade on daily charts, use H1 charts to find best entry and exit points.

Tip 5. Learn how to manage your risks. Your deposit is your workhorse, and if you lose it, you are out of business. This is the reason why you should not risk more than 5% of your deposit per trade under any circumstances. In my FOREX tips, I recommend to risk even less. 2-3% is the safest way to go.

Tip 6. Learn to control your emotions. Watch for fear and greed and follow your trading system no matter what. When you start opening and closing positions based on what you feel and not based on what your system tells you, you start to lose your money. The more money you lose, the more chaotic your trading becomes and the more money you lose as a result. The same happens if you win too many trades in a single row. You start feeling yourself like a “God”, lose your mind, and start ignoring your system, which usually leads to big losses. Always stay calm no matter whether you win or lose. It’s ok to lose a single trade or a number of trades in a row. After losing trades you usually get winning trades, which compensate your losses, and the opposite is also true.

Tip 7. Your trading strategy must complement your lifestyle and personality. If you can trade only a few hours a day, choose a strategy that is based on delayed orders, and use larger timeframes such as daily and monthly timeframes. If you cannot wait for big market movements, use a smaller timeframe, such as M5 or M15. Perhaps, a scalping strategy will best suit you. If you need hours or days to make a decision, use larger timeframes and trade long-term.

Tip 8. If you are in doubt, or when the markets are uncertain, refrain from trading. Staying away and not trading is also a position, often called “neutral position”. By not trading you avoid losses, and prepare to take a big win when uncertainty is over and a new trend emerges.

Tip 9. Limit your losses by using protective stop-loss orders or hedging. If you open a position in a wrong direction, stop-loss or hedging order will kick in saving your deposit. You will lose this single trade, and your deposit will shrink a bit which is fine. But if you don’t use preventive stop-losses, your stop-loss in your entire deposit. Are you sure you want to risk your workhorse for the sake of a single transaction?

Tip 10. Before accepting a trade signal, check if Profit/Loss ratio of the trade is at least 2:1. When you forecast a price movement, you forecast profit and loss targets. Divide projected profit in pips by projected loss in pips, and you will get this ratio. Do not enter the market if you come up with a number less than 2. History has proven the fact that traders cannot forecast price movements with greater probability than 60%. This is the reason why choosing P/L ration of at least 2:1 is the only way to stay profitable over the long term.

Tip 11. Never add positions to a losing trade. If you think that market is about to turn around and desperately want to add positions to your losing trade at a “better price”, it means you are trading on emotions. Market will not turn around and you will lose more money than you have originally planned. Some people even remove stop-loss orders if market starts to move against an open position to “prevent” losses, and increase this position at a “better price” at the same time. Guess what happens to these people in a little while? In my FOREX tips I recommend you to add positions to a trade ONLY if it is a winning trade, and ONLY if you know that the market still has some momentum and will probably reach your target.

Tip 12. Cut your losses and allow your profits to grow. Close losing positions without a hesitation and let winning positions to accumulate more profit. Do not be afraid that the market will turn around and you will lose those 20 pips you’ve made for a couple of hours. Set stop-loss order to zero, and allow the profit to grow. Once you get a good profit, you can protect it by moving your stop-loss order higher to let’s say +80 pips to allow more profits to be generated.

Tip 13. Know active market hours for the currency pairs you are trading. The greatest movements happen with GBPUSD and EURUSD when London and New York sessions overlap (between 8:00am and 11:00am EST). The same happens with AUDJPY pair when Sydney and Tokyo sessions overlap (between 7:00pm and 12:00am EST). It’s easier and safer to initiate a trade when market takes of, and quickly moves towards your target, than to sit for hours near terminal waiting for the price to move some 20 pips.

Tip 14. Trading day of week matters. You do not want to be on the market when the trading volume is extremely low, or when the majority of traders close their positions. This is the reason why you should avoid Mondays and Fridays. Mondays tend to be flatty and shaky, and Fridays way too volatile because on Fridays many traders close their weekly positions.

Tip 15. Avoid highly leveraged FOREX accounts unless you know what you are doing. The more your account is leveraged, the greater your risk is, and the more careful you should be as a result. For a novice trader any account with leverage more than 100:1 can be disastrous. Leverage stands for multiplication. 100:1 means that for every dollar you have on your account, you can trade $100 dollars. But if you open a position and market moves against you, you loose your money 100x times faster than without a leverage.

Tip 16. Evaluate your trading skills by the end of a month or year. Do not judge about your trading success or failure on a single trade. You need to prove yourself over a long period of time. Do not think about the end result every time you close your positions. Make a number of trades, then analyze the end result. A winning strategy may give you 10 loosing trades in a row with -15 pips loss, and one successful trade with +300 pips profit per month, and over the period of a year this strategy can yield +2000 pips net profit. But if you judge it within the bad days, you may give up too early.

Tip 17. No one is born a successful trader. People become successful traders by learning how to stay successful over a long period of time. You may need a couple of burned deposits until you get it right. This is the reason why your first live account should be a FOREX mini account not greater than $1,000 USD. Once your prove you can stay profitable for a long period of time, you can deposit more and start using regular lot sizes.

Friday, 2 November 2012

Trader Insight